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Prediction for CME (2026-06-11T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-11T00:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46775/-1
CME Note: Bright loop CME and shock first seen to the Northeast by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2026-06-11T00:36Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this CME is a long duration C6.7 class flare from Active Region 14465 (N09E39) seen peaking at 2026-06-11T00:02Z. This flare can be seen in SDO AIA 131 along with a wide region of dimming, field line opening and an EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. | Arrival note: Arrival signature characterized by a sharp jump in B_total from ~5 nT to ~8 nT accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed form ~550 km/s to ~630 km/s as well as an increase in temperature from ~135k K to ~364k K and an increase in density from ~5 p/cc to ~14 p/cc. Starting around 2026-06-13T13:44Z, the magnetic field components become more stable with time until about 20:00Z, potentially indicating the presence of one or more passing flux ropes. This event is most likely associated with the arrival of CME: 2026-06-11T00:36Z. Two other CMEs, CME: 2026-06-09T16:36Z and CME: 2026-06-09T21:36Z, were also anticipated to provide very weak glancing blows within this timeframe, but have more likely missed.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T09:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T16:13Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2026 Jun 11 1233 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 60611
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Jun 2026, 1232UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Jun 2026  10CM FLUX: 122 / AP: 021 
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Jun 2026  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 037 
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Jun 2026  10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 027


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Coronal mass ejections: A halo coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 675) was detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 00:36 UTC on June 11. The CME was directed primarily towards the northeast from Earth's perspective and was associated with a long-duration C6.7 flare (SIDC Flare 7923), peaking at 00:02 UTC on June 11, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 870 (NOAA Active Region 4465), as well as with Type II and Type IV radio emissions detected at 00:13 UTC and 00:28 UTC on June 11, respectively. Associated coronal dimming and an EUV wave were also observed in SDO/AIA data. The bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, although a glancing blow could be possible on June 13.
Follow up analysis indicated that the CMEs reported yesterday, SIDC CME 673 and SIDC CME 674, first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 from around 16:36 UTC and 21:36 UTC on June 9, respectively, may also result in glancing blows at Earth around June 13, although confidence remains low.

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Lead Time: 45.18 hour(s)
Difference: -6.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-11T12:40Z

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